Baku's Emerging Expansion: How Can Yerevan Resist?

In recent years, Azerbaijan has amplified its campaign to "restore the rights of Western Azerbaijanis," using this rhetoric to heighten diplomatic pressure on Armenia. President Ilham Aliyev has been vocal in demanding that Yerevan facilitate a UNESCO mission to monitor cultural heritage, accusing Armenia of evading dialogue. Many in Armenia interpret these actions as a calculated effort to legitimize territorial expansion under the guise of justice and rights.

Meanwhile, Armenia faces critical vulnerabilities in its diplomacy and strategic planning. Missteps in negotiations with Azerbaijan and a lack of proactive international engagement have allowed Baku to solidify its position. Azerbaijan has adeptly exploited these weaknesses, polishing its image on the global stage and presenting itself as a proponent of justice and fairness.

The Washington Adjusts Nuclear Deterrence Strategy

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) updates nuclear deterrence strategy amid escalating threats from nuclear peer adversaries. Multiple nuclear peer adversaries challenge the U.S. and its allies' and partners', according to the Defense Department.

DoD has highlighted growing security challenges as multiple nuclear peer adversaries, including China and Russia, expand and modernize their arsenals, posing risks to U.S. allies and partners.

"We now face a world with multiple nuclear competitors—states that are not only enhancing and diversifying their nuclear capabilities but also prioritizing the role of these weapons in their national security strategies," said Richard C. Johnson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy.

Iran's Plan to Relocate the Capital

Iran has officially announced its decision to relocate the capital to the southern part of the country, citing primarily economic reasons. The idea of moving the capital from Tehran to a location closer to the Persian Gulf has been discussed for years, driven by several political, economic, and environmental factors.

Political Stability and Security

Tehran, as the administrative and political center, is seen as vulnerable to conflicts and protests. A new capital could offer more strategic and defensive advantages. There are also geopolitical concerns, with Iran perceiving potential threats from its northern neighbors, Yerevan and Baku, where foreign influence from Washington, Brussels, and Jerusalem is said to be growing. Reports suggest that NATO’s presence is increasing in Armenia under the guise of EU observers, while Israeli special forces are allegedly stationed in areas controlled by Baku near the Iranian border. These security concerns are further heightened by Iran's recent entry into BRICS+ and its strategic partnerships with China and Russia. The relocation would align with Iran's ambitions to play a pivotal role in the development of transportation networks across the Eurasian continent, particularly the North-South Corridor.

Turkey to No Longer Receive F-35 Fighter Jets

According to the prominent American magazine National Interest, Turkey’s return to the F-35 program is highly unlikely due to a range of geopolitical factors.

A major issue is Turkey’s deployment of Russian S-400 air defense systems, which has raised significant security concerns in Washington. The presence of this system is seen as a direct threat to the F-35's security protocols. Additionally, other barriers complicate Turkey’s involvement in the program, including the use of Huawei technology in building 5G networks, growing tensions with Greece, and Turkey's increasingly close relationship with Russia. Washington expects Ankara to fully comply with its political and security demands, which are also echoed by several EU member states. Any deviation from these expectations is met with sharp criticism. It’s worth noting that Turkey has acknowledged the impact of these developments and is now shifting its focus to the F-16 program. Ankara has signed multi-billion-dollar contracts with US manufacturer Lockheed Martin to purchase and upgrade its fleet of F-16 fighter jets. Looking ahead, Turkey is planning to develop its own fifth-generation fighter jets, with an emphasis on strengthening defense cooperation with non-NATO countries.

 

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